Cash ÷ (cash + stocks), end of each quarter
US narrow, US broad and crypto on one chart. Each is cash ÷ (cash + invested).
How the US stock market's value changed over the following 12 months, grouped by how much cash there was at the start.
Average 12-month change by cash-share fifth (highlighted: where today sits). Market value includes new listings, so it is not an exact return.
All the cash we can measure ÷ (that cash + everything invested). Tap a layer to leave it out.
Still not counted, because no reliable public data exists: cash sitting in brokerage accounts, privately held corporations (about $13T, not in the Fed's public-equity series), and leverage (margin loans and derivatives are borrowing against these assets, not extra assets). ETF shares are removed from US stocks so the stocks they hold are counted once. A small overlap remains: money funds hold some commercial paper and agency debt that is also in bonds. Daily estimate moves only stocks and money funds; the other layers update each Fed quarter.
Change in money market funds each quarter (US) and stablecoins (crypto). The last bar is the change since the latest quarter.
When cash pays well, people hold more of it. The 3-month T-bill rate is roughly what money market funds pay.
Total value of all cryptocurrencies, end of each quarter
Where Bitcoin sits in its cycle: valuation, trend, timing and the macro backdrop. The risk score is our own formula.
Bitcoin's weekly price on a log scale, with a fair-value curve fitted to its whole history. Colour = our risk score.
The zone between the 20-week simple and 21-week exponential moving averages. Bitcoin tends to hold it in bull markets and lose it before bear markets.
Each cycle's price as a multiple of its bear-market low, by weeks since that low.
Bitcoin's return over the previous year, every week.
Not included: MVRV, Puell multiple, HODL waves and supply in profit. They need on-chain data that has no free public source we can read.
| Period | Money funds | Company cash | Total cash | Stocks | Cash share |
|---|
Cash is all US money market fund assets plus the cash and bank deposits of non-financial companies. Invested is the market value of all US public company shares, minus ETF shares (an ETF holds stocks that are already counted, so counting the ETF too would double them). The two don't overlap, so nothing is counted twice.
Starts from the last official Fed quarter. Stocks move with the S&P 500 each trading day; money funds move with ICI's weekly totals. Company cash holds at the last Fed figure until the next quarter is published.
Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1) via FRED: MMMFFAQ027S, NCBCDTQ027S, BOGZ1FL883164115Q. Daily: S&P 500 via FRED, money funds from ICI. Broad view: Fed Z.1 household deposits, Treasury bills, debt securities, foreign equities, real estate and noncorporate business equity via FRED. Crypto: total market value of all coins from CoinMarketCap; stablecoins (all dollar-pegged coins in circulation) from DefiLlama. Crypto is shown separately and is not part of the US cash share.